Spatial Clustering and Determinants of Agricultural to Urban Land Conversion at the Neighborhood Level: Evidence from Konya, Türkiye

Abstract

Urban expansion processes exert significant pressure on agricultural land, particularly in rapidly growing cities. This study analyzes the spatial distribution and determinants of agricultural-to-urban land conversion at the neighborhood level in Konya, Türkiye, for the period 1990–2018. First, the spatial pattern of agricultural land loss was examined using Global Moran’s I and Local Moran’s I (LISA) statistics. Global Moran’s I result (I = 0.2037, p < 0.01) indicates that agricultural land conversion exhibits statistically significant positive spatial autocorrelation, suggesting that land-use transitions are spatially clustered rather than randomly distributed. LISA analysis further reveals that high conversion clusters are primarily concentrated along the southwestern urban growth corridor of the city. To identify the key determinants of agricultural land conversion, an Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression model was employed. The results demonstrate that the initial urban land ratio and distance to the city center are statistically significant predictors of conversion intensity. The negative coefficients of both variables indicate that agricultural land conversion increases in neighborhoods located closer to the city center and in areas with higher initial levels of urban development. Although the explanatory power of the model is moderate (R² = 0.239), the presence of spatial clustering highlights the importance of spatial interaction effects and neighborhood spillover dynamics in shaping land-use transitions. Overall, the findings suggest that urban growth in Konya follows a spatially structured and directional pattern. These results underline the critical role of spatial planning policies in guiding urban expansion and protecting agricultural land resources. The study demonstrates that neighborhood-level spatial analysis provides valuable insights for understanding urban land transformation processes and for developing sustainable land management strategies.